Search: "forecasting"

This skill should be used for time series machine learning tasks including classification, regression, clustering, forecasting, anomaly detection, segmentation, and similarity search. Use when working with temporal data, sequential patterns, or time-indexed observations requiring specialized algorithms beyond standard ML approaches. Particularly suited for univariate and multivariate time series analysis with scikit-learn compatible APIs.

Fits and diagnoses Python statistical models including OLS, GLM, discrete and mixed models, ARIMA and SARIMAX. Supports coefficient inference, marginal effects, model comparison and time series forecasting with explicit design and uncertainty checks. Used for econometrics and statistical modeling; for guided test selection with APA reporting, see statistical-analysis.

Performs zero-shot time-series forecasting with Google's TimesFM, including regular-grid CSV preparation, quantile forecasts, XReg covariates, and held-out evaluation. Uses the Apache-licensed TimesFM 2.5 checkpoint by default and documents the distinct TimesFM 3.0 multivariate API and weight-license requirements.

Supports multivariate severity assessment and exploratory endpoint-time score forecasting for laboratory animal studies using the RELSA (RELative Severity Assessment) score and ARIMA-based foRcast forecasting. Use when combining welfare readouts — body weight or weight loss, body temperature, clinical or nesting scores, biomarkers, activity, heart rate, burrowing, wheel running — into one severity score per animal per day, when asking which animals are at risk of reaching a humane endpoint at a specified future observation time, when defining attention/danger zones or thresholds on a severity scale by kernel density estimation, or when reporting severity for a 3Rs, refinement, animal-welfare, or EU Directive 2010/63/EU severity-assessment context. Covers directionality ("turned" variables), baseline normalization, reference sets, RELSA weights, ARIMA prediction intervals, and RMSE/PICP/MPIW evaluation.

Strategic-risk analysis skill for AI agents producing decision-ready memos on geopolitics, sanctions, trade, regulation, and strategic risk with explicit evidence boundaries, uncertainty, scenarios, actor incentives, trade-offs, and watch-next indicators. Use for a country risk brief, policy memo, sanctions or export-control exposure assessment, trade or regulatory implications memo, geopolitical scenario brief, strategic implications note for leadership, stakeholder and incentives analysis, a red-team challenge to an existing policy or risk view, or a decision briefing pack for founders, operators, investors, NGOs, compliance teams, policy teams, or leadership. Do not use for a simple news recap, encyclopedia-style overview, academic literature review, legal advice, intelligence-style certainty, decorative analysis, or unsupported quantitative forecasting.